How Did We Get Here?

Pretty much everyone involved in this fiasco did just about everything in their power to ensure the Office of the Speaker of the House would be vacated, like a bizarre Congressional version of the Prisoner’s Dilemma. The Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) crew clearly thought Speaker McCarthy would cut a deal with the Democrats to remain Speaker, allowing them to continue their grievance tour in perpetuity. Speaker McCarthy, for his part, decided to antagonize the Democrats as much as possible ensuring they’d vote against him, perhaps in the thought that the Gaetz crew would back down. Both assumptions turned out to be wrong and here we are. I of course predicted the opposite would happen, whoops! If the House is unable to resolve the situation this week expect to hear a lot of chatter on empowering Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-NC), focusing on a particular phrase from the House Rules. More on that below.

Where We Are – Who is In, Who Is Out?

Understanding all of this can change in a flash – there’s another GOP Conference meeting tonight – here we go.

Right now, only two Members are formally running for Speaker. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH). Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK) briefly flirted with entering the fray, calling over 100 of his colleagues in the process, but ultimately decided it wasn’t the right time to make that move. Here’s a brief rundown of where they’re at.

Majority Leader Steve Scalise: Leader Scalise is universally well liked. In addition to his gregarious nature, he of course nearly lost his life in 2017 when he was shot during a practice for the Congressional Baseball Game. It’s hard to find anyone on the Hill who has something negative to say about the man. As of this writing, 31 Republicans have publicly pledged their support to the Leader. Notably Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) and a number of senior Appropriators. Remember, if Rep. Scalise were to prevail, that would create an opening at Majority Leader.

  • How Does Scalise Prevail?: Leader Scalise needs to convince hardliners on the right that he’s not another iteration of Speaker McCarthy. Will be a tough sell for a lot of those members since Scalise has been in Republican Leadership for almost a decade. He also needs to assure Members he’s healthy enough to do the job, having just been diagnosed with cancer.

Chairman Jim Jordan:  Jordan for his part is known as a man of his word. When he says for instance, that his first priority would be to use the appropriations process to jam the White House and Senate on Border Security, you can take it to the bank that he will shut down the federal government in order to do it. A Speaker Jordan would almost guarantee the government shuts down on November 18th. (FWIW, with Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel over the weekend, it’s safe to say numerous House Republicans who voted against the CR are glad then-Speaker McCarthy took one for the team and kept the government open.) Jordan has more public support, 48 people have publicly endorsed him, primarily from the conservative wing of the party but he also has some public support from more “establishment” Republicans like Reps. Issa, Malliotakis and those in the Ohio Delegation. Of course, President Trump has also endorsed Rep. Jordan.

  • How Does Jordan Prevail?: Jim Jordan needs to convince Republican members in Biden-won districts (there are 18 of them!), that he won’t jeopardize their re-election with hardline hard-right tactics and policies. It’ll be a tough sell, especially with Trump weighing in.

What is Former Speaker McCarthy Up To?: Former Speaker McCarthy (R-CA), for his part, gave an address to reporters on the situation in Israel from the Rayburn Room today, a small room near the floor of the House. Press Conferences like that are normally done in the HVC, where rooms are outfitted specifically for press conferences, or at “The Triangle” so you have the Capitol in the shot. Instead, Rep. McCarthy chose a room named after a former House Speaker. Interesting.

Rep. McCarthy did not deny reports that he would consider running for Speaker of the House again. When asked if he would accept the speaker nomination from House Republicans if the two current speaker candidates are unable to secure the needed votes, Rep. McCarthy said, “that’s a decision for the [GOP] conference.” Rep. McCarthy added that 96% percent of the conference supports him.

This gives credence to rumors, reported in Axios, that the former Speaker’s team was working against Majority Leader Scalise.

  • How Does The Former Speaker Become Speaker Again?: McCarthy needs Jordan and Scalise to fall well short of 218 in the House Conference vote (this will happen), have neither man drop out and back the other (unsure, but unlikely to happen immediately), any potential 3rd parties fail to garner sudden support a la Paul Ryan after McCarthy’s first attempt at Speaker (there is no-one else, maybe Rep. Emmer), and find a way to overcome the fact that the Gaetz crew will never support him (this means getting Democrats or some key absences from the floor). In other words, a lot of things have to break his way. But I wouldn’t rule it out!

How Will the House Conference Election Play Out

Nominations/Speeches: House GOP Conference Rules (different from the Rules of the House) dictate the terms and process of Leadership Elections. Candidates will be nominated in alphabetical order so Jordan will be up first. He will give a speech not lasting more than three minutes, followed by two seconding speeches of one minute. Then Scalise will repeat this process.

Voting: Since there are only two candidates (so far) there will only be one vote. In contests with more than two candidates, if no one receives a majority on the first ballot, the lowest vote getter is dropped and the process is repeated.  Most importantly, voting is done by secret ballot. Having been on the losing end of more than one of these, it’s a process that leads someone to realize more than a few people have lied to them. Fun!

Ok, Someone Got a Majority, Now What Is Supposed to Happen?: If Leader Scalise were to prevail, that would normally necessitate a follow up election for Majority Leader, but my understanding is the Conference is forgoing that process until someone gets 218 on the floor. If Jordan wins, that doesn’t matter.

What Are They Going to Do?: The Conference will have to work out whether the winner can get 218 on the floor. This assumes the loser (and his supporters) is graceful and backs the winner. You will likely be able to read about this in real time on Twitter (X) because the House GOP Conference is about as watertight as a whiffle ball. I recommend following @olivia_beavers of Politico, @juliegraceb of Axios and @jakesherman of Punchbowl News. Sherman is seen as a favored leak target by Team McCarthy and the other two are well sourced with rank-and-file Republicans. It’s going to be a media firestorm, and winners and losers will immediately hit the spin-cycle on TV and the Twitter-verse.

What Do I Think Is Going to Happen/Prediction?: Remember, it’s a secret ballot, so political perception of one’s vote doesn’t come in to play here. I don’t think either man will top 150 votes. I expect Scalise to come out on top but by around 30 votes. The two sides will probably break down pretty closely to the Republican votes on the CR. What does Jordan do in this scenario? He’s known for playing the long game, so it would make sense for him to cut a deal with Scalise for his support as Majority Leader which could be Scalise’s way of bringing the Gaetz crew on board. Hard to say how Team Emmer would react to that, since he’s publicly backing Scalise. Would Jordan want the Whip job? Would the Conference support a Leader/Whip Jordan?

Had Hamas not murdered hundreds of civilians this weekend, I don’t think this gets resolved this week. There’s so much bad blood between everyone involved. But world events have a way of putting things in perspective.

I think the most likely scenario is Leader Scalise comes out on top in the ballot, but my confidence level on him becoming Speaker is about 25%. If Jordan prevails in the secret ballot, I think chaos ensues. There are simply too many Republicans who would have a very difficult time either for re-election purposes or personal/philosophical reasons to elevate Jordan to the Speakership.

After last night’s GOP Conference Meeting it’s easy to see how we’re still in limbo at the end of the week.

Open Questions: Gaetz et. al likely realize (or will realize) all the agreements they had with McCarthy were just that, deals with McCarthy. They’ll want assurances from Scalise if he wins that he will also abide by them. Do they ask for even more concessions? Probably. There are also at least 45 GOP members publicly demanding a change to the motion to vacate, what do they do? The same math that denies McCarthy the Speakership applies to everyone, including someone backed by the Gaetz crew. Will this be the moment that moderate GOP members put their foot down…finally? What does McCarthy do after votes are tallied? How deep is McCarthy’s support? We know how many Members backed him on the floor, but how many will go to the floor and put their name on record to deny anyone else? Lots of unanswered questions means this could go haywire in a million different ways.

Two Things You Can Take to the Bank: Donald Trump will not be Speaker, and neither will there be a “unity” bipartisan pick.

Get Smart – The Speaker Pro Tempore

What Does the Rule Say?: Rule 1, Clause 8 of the House Rules lays out the parameters of the role and selection of a Speaker Pro Tempore. Rule 1, Clause 8(b)(3)(A) is the relevant section and it states the following:

In the case of a vacancy in the Office of the Speaker, the next Member on the list described in subdivision (B) [Rep. Patrick McHenry in this case] shall act as Speaker pro tempore until the election of a Speaker or a Speaker Pro Tempore. Pending such election the Member acting as Speaker pro tempore may exercise such authorities of the Office of the Speaker as may be necessary and appropriate to that end.

What Does This Mean?: In short nobody can really say for sure. This clause was adopted by the 108th Congress in 2003 — in the aftermath of 9/11 — to provide for a line of succession in the event of the incapacitation of the Speaker of the House. It’s never been tested since the adoption of the rule. Speakers Pro Tempore have signed enrolled bills, appointed select committees, administered the oath of office to Members-elect, been able to call a quorum and given authority to issue a warrant for the arrest of absent members. That’s the scope of it. The Rules were simply not written in a way that envisioned this scenario. I expect Republican Leadership (and the Democrats for that matter) are consulting with the House Parliamentarian on what is an isn’t covered in “necessary and appropriate”. Regardless, a ruling by the Parliamentarian can be overruled by a full vote of the House, so keep an eye on this!