Produced By:

Bret Manley (bret@elevatega.com) former Chief of Staff to Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL)

David Marten (david@elevatega.com) former Legislative Director for Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA)

Elevate Government Affairs (www.elevatega.com)

Balance of Power

Senate: 47 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 4 Independents Caucusing with Democrats

House: 221 Republicans*, 213 Democrats*, 1 Vacancy

WI-08: Rep.-Elect Tony Weld (R) will be sworn in this week to fill out the rest of Rep. Mike Gallagher’s term. He also won the election to serve in the 119th Congress.

NJ-09: Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) passed away in August. The timing of Rep. Pascrell’s death meant it was too late to schedule a special election to fill the remainder of the term. State Sen. Nellie Pou (D) will replace Rep. Pascrell in the 119th Congress. The seat will remain vacant until then.

TX-18: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee passed away in July after a long battle with cancer. Her daughter, Erica Lee Carter, will serve out the remainder of her term while the former Mayor of Houston, Sylvester Turner (D), will replace Rep. Jackson-Lee in the 119th Congress.

Top Line Takeaways:

You Win Some, You Lose Some, Let Us Know if We Can Help!: There are lots of long faces around town no matter your political persuasion. As many of us know it’s never fun to lose your job and then get an email from the CAO that you have two weeks to pack up your stuff and get out. It sucks! We at Elevate are happy to be a resource and talk with anyone who finds themselves on the wrong end of this year’s election results. No guarantee we can help but always good to build your network!

The Results Are (Mostly) In!: President…check. Senate….check. House…is not gonna be 100% settled for a few days. Remember the House GOP didn’t officially secure the majority in 2022 until Rep. Garcia (R-CA) had his race called eight days after the election. However, it looks like the GOP will maintain the slimmest of majorities. Bret came up in CA politics and if you want an epic rant about how they count votes out there give him a call. Meanwhile David will tell you about the benefits of all-mail-in voting and why patience is a virtue when it comes to waiting days for the result in WA-03.

House Leadership Drama?: GOP Leadership elections will take place this week when all the freshmen are in town, the Dems will do it the week of the 18th. House GOP may delay race for Conference Chair due to the rapidly changing landscape with Stefanik’s departure. Only Members who will serve in the 119th Congress get to vote. If Republicans win a trifecta, that takes the air out of the drama balloon, but Freedom Caucus members are likely looking for ways to leverage the small majority against Speaker Johnson. The (likely) departure of Rep. Stefanik for the role of U.N. Ambassador has set off a wave of activity. Reps. Lisa McClain (R-MI), Kat Cammack (R-FL), and Erin Houchin (R-IN) are officially in the race with Blake Moore (R-UT) rumored to be joining them. Both McClain and Moore occupy leadership positions below the rank of Conference Chair which means those spots are now open. This is where all the drama will be, not at the top. Unless Speaker Johnson totally botches the end of the year spending conversation (read: gets himself crosswise with President Trump) he will be Speaker when the House convenes in January…on the first ballot.

Big Changes Coming to Senate Leadership: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has been Republican Leader since taking over for retiring Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN) in 2007. Only seven GOP senators have served under a different Leader. Two of them, Sens. Thune (R-SD) and Cornyn (R-TX), are running to replace him along with Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) who arrived in 2019. Sen. Thune appears to have the lead here but we break down both House and Senate leadership in this month’s “Get Smart” section below!

Musical (Committee) Chairs: After leadership elections, the House Steering Committees will meet to select Committee Chairs. Some of these races (like Energy and Commerce) may spill into December. The Democrats will wait until December as they wait for the remaining elections to be finalized. Last cycle this process got delayed over leadership drama but since we don’t expect any of that it’s likely to go back to “normal”. We did an analysis of who is moving where. Find it attached.

Time To Clear the Decks: House Republicans and their adversaries…ahem…GOP colleagues on the other side of the Capitol will likely try to clear the deck of all major policy questions, including a full year spending package, before adjourning Sine Die. There are still some open wounds from the six months or so that were wasted getting through FY2016 spending (followed by the “repeal and replace” debacle) when President Trump first took office. Congressional Republicans won’t want to make that mistake again.

Judge, Lest Not Ye Be Judged: Senate Democrats will be laser focused on getting as many lower court judges confirmed as they can until they cede that authority to the incoming Trump Administration/Senate GOP. You will hear people floating a Justice Sotomayer retirement (She’s 70 years old and has Type 1 diabetes), because they have PTSD from Justice Ginsberg not retiring during the final year of President Obama’s term. There’s no precedent for a president to try and fill a Supreme Court seat after an election in which he, or his party, lost the White House. A bigger problem though is the ENORMOUS risk that – with a 51-49 seat majority — outgoing Senators Joe Manchin (I-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) wouldn’t go along. They didn’t switch their registrations to “Independent” because of stalwart party loyalty. So we file that under “unlikely” (Yes we know that’s not what the scripture says, but Bret is pretty proud of that pun).

What’s Left for the 118th Congress: The Big Stuff

End of the Year Spending Package: All eyes will be on what Speaker Johnson and his leadership team will come up with to close out the year. The two competing philosophies are a full spending deal through FY2025 (either one big omnibus package or via several “mini-bus” packages) or a CR into the new year and have another go at it with unified GOP control of government. Many Republicans, and Trump alumni, remember 2017 when they wasted six months working through unresolved spending issues. This time around President Trump is term limited, and Republicans haven’t forgotten the 2018 midterms. Smart players in the Capitol know they may only have 2 years to push through their policy agenda that includes big ticket items like extending the Trump tax cuts and immigration reform. This plan falls apart if President Trump publicly calls for a CR, and you can be sure the Freedom Caucus types are in his ear suggesting that option is better since you won’t have a Democratic majority in the Senate to deal with. Simple inertia could lead House leaders into the CR strategy. The space to watch is what demands the Freedom Caucus types make, and whether those demands are tied to supporting Speaker Johnson on the floor in January. This dynamic could lead Speaker Johnson to prefer a CR into March, on the other side of a floor vote for Speaker. It’s better to look at these flash points in the spending debate as less about spending and more about generating leverage over how Congress and the Republican Conference is organized.

NDAA (Including Coast Guard): NDAA has been passed every year since its inception “on time” and with a bipartisan vote. We don’t expect anything different this time around since the House has passed its bill and Senate Armed Services moved its bill this summer. This means the “Big Four” have had roughly half a year to negotiate. Angst over Ukraine and the culture war, should die down in the Republican right flank with the re-election of President Trump, which means there aren’t many flash points preventing this from getting done. The big remaining question is how much “extra” stuff rides with it. The Coast Guard reauthorization has routinely caught a ride on NDAA but this could be a casualty. Negotiations are happening on the Senate side, but Senate Commerce isn’t near an agreement and hasn’t even released text. Since the Senate has flipped, incoming Chairman Cruz (assuming Thune becomes Leader) may decide to push this into the 119th so he can deal with it as Chairman.

Farm Bill: For the past year, we have been saying the Farm Bill reauthorization isn’t going to happen. We still believe that. When we look back at 2022 it mystifies us since you had Senate Ag Chair Stabenow (D-MI) retiring and so an incentive to cut a deal should have generated enough momentum to get something done. Post election, with rural ag district Dems largely holding serve, we’re looking at an extension. The reality is that 90+ of the Farm Bill will continue on without explicit reauthorization. House Ag Chairman Thompson (R-PA), who will likely reprise his role in the 119th, has yet to assemble the rural/city coalition that traditionally is required to pass a full Farm Bill reauthorization. Until the conflict between farm programs, TANF (food stamps), crop insurance, and previously authorized climate change programs is resolved, it’s likely that a series of extensions will continue.

Disaster Package: This is the big wild card as we sit here in November. The number of states waiting in line for disaster aid appropriations has been growing for some time. Hawaii, California, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Maryland, Minnesota, and probably a few we are forgetting have been pressing Congress for disaster aid. The easiest thing, politically, for Congressional leaders would be to package disaster aid and an end of the year spending package. One vote on spending is easier than two votes and the Senate/House can focus messaging on disaster aid.

Get Smart – Leadership Elections Edition

Have you ever wondered how the internal elections work for House and Senate Leadership? No? Weird, we thought everyone cared about that. In (probably) a change from last Congress, we don’t expect much drama in the House and the Senate should be smooth even though there are major changes. Since the Constitution leaves management of each chamber up to its members, and didn’t envision permanent political parties, there is only one constitutionally mandated leadership position in each chamber (Speaker and Senate President Pro Tempore) and four different approaches to intra-chamber leadership elections. We break it down by Chamber.

The Senate

The Senate President Pro Tempore: The Senate has one constitutionally mandated position, the Senate President Pro Tempore (Pro Tem), who presides over the Senate in the absence of the Vice President and has authority over various appointments. Technically, anyone can serve as Pro Tem, but it’s always been a Senator. Importantly the Pro Tem, unlike the Vice President, cannot break a Senate tie. In recent history this position is filled by the majority party Senator with the most seniority (unless they’re holding another leadership position). Currently that person is Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) (elected in 1993). In the 119th Congress it will be Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), who is most senior Senator of either party having assumed office in 1981.

Senate GOP Leadership Process: The Senate Republican Conference votes on its leadership through secret ballot. Tough to know for certain who your friends and enemies are! It’s a common refrain that leadership elections are when you find out how many people have been lying to you. Votes will be held for Floor (Majority) Leader, Assistant Floor Leader (Whip), Chairman of the Conference, Vice Chairman of the Conference, Chairman of the Policy Committee, and Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Additionally, the Senate Republican conference must approve of members (beyond the leadership members listed above) of the Policy Committee. Only Senators who will serve in the 119th Congress get a vote, so incoming Senators Moreno (R-OH), Sheehy (R-MT), Justice (R-WV) and McCormick (R-PA). VP-elect Vance (R-OH) will get a vote since he will be a Senator until he’s sworn in on the 20th. There’s been a dust up between GOP and Dem Leadership over Senator-elect McCormick participating since incumbent Bob Casey (D-PA) has yet to concede. But our guess is this gets worked out by the time of the elections and McCormick will get a vote.

Senate GOP Leadership Positions:

  1. Majority Leader: The race between Sens. John Thune (R-SD), John Cornyn (R-TX), and Rick Scott (R-FL) is nearing a close. Thune remains favored absent a late intervention by President-elect Trump that could scramble the race. MAGA activists and media personalities are mounting a public campaign to pressure President Trump into endorsing Scott. This is a big risk for Trump, Senators of both parties have long been adverse to taking direction from anyone on how to run their conference and being a secret ballot there’s no individual downside to bucking Trump. So he could (we think probably would) lose.
    1. Important Difference from House: They don’t have to certify this on the floor. Once the Conference votes on this, it’s over.
  2. Whip: Sen. John Barrasso (R-SD), the third of the “three Johns,” eyed the Majority Leader role earlier in the year before opting to run for Whip. He does not face any competition.
  3. Conference Chair: Sens. Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Tom Cotton (R-AR) will face off for the #3 role. Ernst currently serves as Senate GOP Policy Committee chair and the step up would be a natural fit that would make her the highest-ranking Republican female senator in 50 years. But Cotton, who has said he won’t take a role in the Administration, announced he believes he has the votes locked down.
  4. Republican Policy Committee Chair: With Sen. Ernst running for a promotion, this opens up Policy Committee for Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) to seek a promotion.
  5. Vice Chair: Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) is currently running unopposed for the #5 role.
  6. NRSC: Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) who ran for President before becoming a top Trump surrogate and rumored pick for Vice President, is likely to take over for Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT)

Senate Dem Leadership Process: Like Republicans, Senate Democrats hold their elections for Conference Leadership positions (if contested) by secret ballot. These positions include the Democratic Leader; the Whip; the Chair of the Democratic Policy & Communications Committee; the Chair of the Democratic Steering & Outreach Committee; two Vice Chairs of the Conference; the Chair of Outreach; the Vice Chair of the Democratic Policy & Communications Committee; the Conference Secretary; the Vice Chair of the Democratic Policy & Communications Committee; the Vice Chair of Outreach; and the Deputy Conference Secretary. Conference rules state that elections for leadership positions cannot be held until December.

Senate Dem Leadership Positions: No major changes are expected at the top of Senate Democratic leadership. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will remain as Democratic Leader while Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) will remain as Whip. Sen. Stabenow’s departure creates movement lower down the leadership ladder. Like their House counterparts, Senate Dems have many more leadership positions than their Republican counterpart. You can see the current list here. The Dem Leader in the Senate likewise selects the campaign chairman and it is not an elected position. We focus here on the most comparable positions to their GOP counterparts. Because the Democrats won’t hold these elections until December, it’s too difficult to accurately predict how the dominoes fall with Stabenow’s retirement.

  1. Minority Leader: Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will be unopposed.
  2. Whip: Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) will be unopposed.
  3. Chair of Policy and Communications Committee: Sen Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) retired leaving a vacancy here. This leaves an opening for Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) to seek the seat since she’s vacating the role of Senate President Pro Tempore, but we are told she will not run.
  4. Vice-Chair of Conference: Sen. Warren (D-MA) can remain here unopposed or run for a promotion.
  5. Vice-Chair of Conference: Yes there are two of them. Sen. Warner (D-VA) likewise can remain here unopposed or run for a promotion.
  6. DSCC: The only Senator publicly vying for this post is Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY). We suspect Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI) will look at it as well. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) is a wildcard. On paper, Senate Dems are looking at a favorable map in 2026 with 20 Republicans up for election and 13 Dems. A quick glance and the map though and it’s not that clear cut. Maine will be a prime opportunity, and the Ohio special, but other pick-up opportunities are in the Carolinas before you get to very red states. Dems will also have to defend Sen. Ossoff’s seat in Georgia. If Booker wants to run for President (we think he will) then having a good cycle in 2026 will boost his bid. If he comes up short however, the opposite. He’s also up for re-election in 2026.

The House

House Republicans and Democrats have slightly different processes for electing their leaders and organizing. The biggest differences are Dem leadership has more positions up for grabs and the Dem Minority Leader (or Speaker when in the majority) picks the head of the campaign committee (DCCC) which is an elected position for House Republicans. We will summarize but you can find each process in their Conference (GOP) and Caucus (Dem) rules packages.

Speaker of the House: The only constitutionally mandated position in the House, like the Senate, also does not have to be a member of the chamber but it always has been. Whomever wins the their conference/caucus vote for Speaker must get 218 votes on the floor. We aren’t going to run down the specifics of that process here, because we already did that for you waaaaay back in the January 2022 Look Ahead. Let us know if you want a refresher!

House GOP Leadership Process: House Republicans vote for their leaders via secret ballot. Only those Members who will be serving in the following Congress can vote. Retiring Members, Members who lost their election, and Members whose races have not been called cannot participate (i.e. you have to be a member of the Conference to participate). In order to win you need a majority of the Members present and voting. Proxy voting is not allowed (e.g. you have to physically be in the room). In the event more than two candidates are running, and nobody reaches the majority threshold, the candidate that receives the least amount of votes is removed from the ballot and voting resumes until someone reaches a majority. Additionally, you may only run for one leadership position.

Elected House GOP Leadership Positions and Who is Running: Presented in the order in which they are elected which is also the unofficial “importance” of each position.

  1. Speaker of the House: Presently, Speaker Johnson (R-LA) is running un-opposed. He has developed a good relationship with President Trump and is likely to be Speaker in the 119th Congress unless he totally botches the end-of-year spending deal.\
  2. Majority Leader: Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) is currently unopposed.
  3. Majority Whip: Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN) is currently unopposed.
  4. Chair of the Republican Conference: Current Conference Chair Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) has been asked by President Trump to serve as U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. The news set off a lot of movement. Current Conference Secretary Lisa McClain (R-MI) and Rep. Kat Cammack (R-FL) are officially running. Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT), currently Vice-Chair, has told people he would jump in if Stefanik departed. In a GOP Majority, there’s a “Big 4” and Conference Chair is the 4th. The other leadership positions put you in the room for the meeting but don’t get you invited to the meeting that happens after that meeting.
  5. Chair of the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC): Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC) is officially running for a second term. Possible, but at this point unlikely, challengers are Reps. Rudy Yakym (R-IN) and Kat Cammack (R-FL).
  6. Chair of the Policy Committee: Until yesterday, this was the only contested race with current Chair Rep. Gary Palmer (R-AL) being challenged by Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK) and potentially Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-NY).
  7. Vice-Chair of the Republican Conference: Current Vice Chair Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT) is currently running though he’s rumored to have eyes on Conference Chair. If he joins that race this opens up. Look for Reps. Garbarino (R-NY) and Pfluger (R-TX) to potentially eye a vacancy here.
  8. Conference Secretary: Current Conference Secretary Lisa McClain (R-MI) is running for Conference Chair which opens this up. Conference Secretary is the lowest leadership rung on the ladder and is usually an entrance point for 2nd or 3rd term members looking to get their feet wet.

House Democratic Leadership Process: House Democrats elect their leadership in a similar secret ballot manner, with a majority required to secure election. The biggest difference in House Democratic leadership is the existence of the “Assistant Democratic Leader/Speaker” which was created for Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) when the Democrats lost the House in 2010 and Leader Pelosi was looking to avoid a clash between Clyburn and longtime #2 Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) for the role of Minority Whip. Additionally, the Chair of the House Democrats campaign arm, the DCCC, is selected by the Democratic Leader/Speaker and is not elected by the Caucus. Finally, the Democrats have a far larger “elected leadership” with 12/13 positions up for election depending on if they’re in the majority or minority.

Elected House Democratic Leadership Positions and Who is Running: We are just focusing here again on the “major” elected leadership positions that are similar to or equal to their Republican counterparts.

  1. Speaker of the House/Minority Leader: Technically, House Democrats will nominate Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) for Speaker. After he loses in January he will become Minority Leader.
  2. Minority Whip: Rep Katherine Clark (D-MA) is running unopposed.
  3. Democratic Caucus Chairman: Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA) is running unopposed.
  4. Democratic Caucus Vice-Chairman: Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA) is running unopposed. This position is similar to the Republicans Policy Committee Chair.
  5. Assistant Democratic Leader: Rep. Joe Neguse (D-CO) is the current Assistant Leader and is likely to stay put barring any changes in front of him. However, if House Democrats secure the majority, there will likely be a battle between Reps. Sara Jacobs (D-CA) and Robin Kelly (D-IL) for this slot with everyone else moving up. Possible one of them makes a run here.
  6. Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC): Rep. Suzane DelBene (D-OR) is the current DCCC Chair and is well liked by her colleagues. The close election means she can likely stay put if she wants to but Leader Jefferies has yet to signal whether or not he wants to make a change here and if he does who the Caucus would accept.

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