The Look Ahead – March 2025

THE LOOK AHEAD – MARCH 2025

Produced By:

Bret Manley (bret@elevatega.com) former Chief of Staff to Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL)

David Marten (david@elevatega.com) former Legislative Director for Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA)

Elevate Government Affairs (www.elevatega.com)

Balance of Power

Senate: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 Independents Caucusing with Democrats
House: 218 Republicans*, 215 Democrats, 2 Vacancies

• FL-01 and FL-06: Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz’s seats, respectively. Both elections are April 1st and are safe Republican seats. These can’t come too soon because we’ve exhausted all 17 of our Matt Gaetz jokes, allegedly.
• Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) will resign her seat in upstate New York when she is confirmed as President Trump’s envoy to the United Nations. Stefanik’s confirmation hearing was January 21st. It’s likely that Senate Republicans are delaying her confirmation because of the slim margins in the House, as Rep. Stefanik has been present in White House meetings and was at the first cabinet meeting. Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY) will have 10 days from the announced vacancy to set a special election date. New York Democrats attempted to change this law to delay filling the seat but were unsuccessful. This is a safe Republican seat.

Top Line Takeaways:

• Shutdown Watchers on the Wall: Conversations we are having with both sides of the aisle in the last week have converged squarely on “nobody wants a shutdown,” although for different reasons. Shutdowns are risky; you never really know who the public is going to blame. House Leadership and the White House want a year-long CR to the end of the fiscal year, likely without any DOGE related cuts (see our breakdown of the OPM/OMB memo on why), to make room for reconciliation. This will anger the Freedom Caucus types, but if you already think the sky is falling, what difference does it make if the sun is shining or not? Democrats, for their part, worry about getting blamed for a shutdown if they all vote no on a “clean CR” after years of hammering Republicans for doing the same. Assuming the House can pass a bill (big if), you’ll need at least seven Democrats in the Senate to vote yes on cloture. The question becomes, what happens if the House GOP loses 40+ Republican votes. HOWEVER, not an insignificant amount of Hill Democrats we talk to think there are plenty of folks in the Trump Administration who would be more than happy to have a shutdown. In such a case, the Administration could deem anyone who isn’t legally essential (law enforcement, air traffic controllers, etc.) as non-essential and run the government with only those employees they feel they need—Paradise Island: The DOGE. Remember, in a shutdown, the sitting President has a lot of leeway in how painful (or not) to make things. In 2013, then President Obama closed the National Mall…by closed, of course, we mean put up a sign and some temporary barricades you could just… like… ignore. Trump could keep large parts of the government operating if he chose to. This would probably work for two weeks…until the people working missed a paycheck. Very long way of saying we here at Elevate are betting against a shutdown.  We are hearing it’ll be a “CR+,” so some anomalies and mathematic jiujitsu to help the Defense Department.
• Earmarky Mark and the Funky Bunch (Dozen): Earmarks — *excuse us* Congressionally Directed Spending/Community Project Funding requests — are due this month and next. You may be wondering what happened to all the requests you submitted last year. Well, those are probably not happening. Not in a CR anyways. So you may then be wondering, should I even bother this time around? Yes! You never know, surely, ONE of these days they’re going to pass all 12 appropriations bills one at a time, on time. 60% of the time, it works every time.  We should caution you, however, that this time around, those earmark requests should conform to Trump’s EOs on entities ineligible for federal funding (DEI, sanctuary cities, etc.).
• T is for Tariffs: Breaking news here…seriously! When it comes to tariffs, President Trump likes to throw his chips in the middle of the table and see if anyone calls. China has been the big loser here, but there is broad bipartisan consensus on Chinese tariffs. Trump has been floating tariffs as a major pay-for, and if you listen to Trump’s chief trade advisor Peter Navarro, who can be seen frequently on CNBC, the administration likes the talking point that the income tax didn’t exist until 1913. So…they’re serious about it. But that’s not news. The news is that USTR is going to be releasing a slew of reports the last week of March (we’ve also been told April 1st), which will serve as a framework for a slew of 301 tariff investigations the Trump administration will subsequently launch. 301 tariffs refer to section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 and gives a President wide berth to implement tariffs on pretty much anything if they think it burdens U.S. commerce. If your company sells or buys something internationally, anything really, it would be wise to review your supply chain.
• Ukraine: The blow up in the Oval Office is going to dominate the next few weeks. It’s worth pointing out that a Harvard-Harris poll last month found 72% of Americans support a negotiated end to hostilities and 60% support Trump having direct negotiations with Russia. Any time an Administration gets 70+% of Americans to support something, you can be sure that they’re more likely to double, triple…quintuple down. If you expect the Administration to modify its stance after last week…we wouldn’t bet on it.  Trump also ran on this issue, so expect to hear a lot about this in the State of the Union on Tuesday.
• DOGE Days of Summer: Also from that Harvard-Harris poll, 83% support for reducing spending vs raising taxes, 77% for full examination of government expenditures, and 70% believe government spending is full of waste, fraud, and abuse. Some of us here at Elevate used to be campaign people…when you see numbers like that you do whatever you can to make sure it’s all anyone is talking about. DOGE isn’t going anywhere; if anything, you’re going to hear more about it. Where the rubber will meet the road (which is like a weird allegory – how else would a car drive?)…is how much can the Administration do without Congressional approval/authorization. The answer is it’s less than they’d like to, but more than Congress wants them to, with an ocean of uncertainty in between. The meeting between Elon and Senate Republicans last week was mostly about Congressional Republicans telling the Administration that it would be a lot easier on everyone if they were like…looped in at least a little bit.
• Can You Um…Pass the SALT, Please?: The easy part of the hard part is done on reconciliation. Both chambers passed a budget with reconciliation instructions (though importantly, they were different budgets…for this to work, they need to be the same). The best way to think of what happened was each chamber gave itself a “permission slip” to write additional legislation. Trump has endorsed the House plan of “one big beautiful bill,” which means they think the tax bill is most important…or at least they feel they can take executive action on energy and immigration in ways they can’t with taxes, so why mess around.  We expect, and there are hints abound, that Republicans will try to make the case that making the tax cuts permanent “cost” nothing because it’s currently the law this year, and since nothing will change from this year, it’s deficit neutral. There’s a logic to this argument, but it’s a huge departure from how things have been scored in the past, and they may (…will?) come to regret this maneuver at some point in the future when the political winds are blowing in a different direction. At the end of the day, if Republicans have the votes, it won’t matter. But they don’t yet have the votes or a bill, and major big-ticket items still need to be resolved.
• Choose Your Adventure: State of the Union Edition: Bret doesn’t watch the SOTU; he likes to see what people freak out about on Twitter (everything) and then read the transcript. David enjoys (read: tolerates) it with whiskey…and also by doomscrolling Twitter (sorry, “X,” whatever Elon). Technically, this isn’t a “State of the Union” speech since it’s the first year of a new President. But tomorrow, on Fat Tuesday (not very MAHA of you, Donald), Trump will deliver a speech to a Joint Session of Congress. It’s Trump, so prepare for a long speech, and be prepared to hear about immigration, DEI, transgender athletes, tariffs, *Trump voice* China, DOGE-related issues, and a lot about the war in Ukraine. The Democrats have chosen newly elected Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) to deliver the response, which gets a lot of attention from the media but, frankly doesn’t really matter beyond getting a view of what the opposition party thinks their best messages are. $20 to any reader who can name the last two without looking it up*.
  • Spoiler alert: Democrats will say it was the worst speech in the history of the speeches; Republicans will say we have entered the golden age of American speeches from which all future speeches shall be judged. But the question we’ll be asking…in a nation that’s Capitalist with a capital “C”, how have we not figured out how to monetize this baby? Why can’t we get a State of the Union sponsored by Diet Coke? Thought this was America.

Legislative Action in March

In the Senate: The endless nominations march continues on the floor with seemingly more appointees requiring approval than the modern Senate’s restrictions on floor time can handle. Congressional Review Act (CRA) votes will also dominate – more on that below. Most importantly for all Senate staffers, March features the first Senate recess in more than 10 weeks. If you’ve made it this far, congratulations. Now that the Senate and House have both passed their option A/option B budget resolutions, all the relevant Senate committees will be busy writing their portions of the forthcoming reconciliation bill to align with the instructions, and defending (if you’re the majority) and trying to tank (if you’re in the minority) those portions of the bill before the Senate parliamentarian.

In the House: Of course, the most high-profile action will be on how House Republicans handle at CR. But to spin their wheels until then, they’ll mostly focus on repealing Biden-era rulemakings. We covered the Congressional Review Act (CRA) in a previous Look Ahead (if you’d like a copy, just ask), but the rules around CRAs mean there’s a finite amount of time (60 legislative days) to introduce CRAs to overturn a rulemaking. The clock started over on account of Congress adjourning Sine Die, so depending on how much “work” Congress is doing, they’ll have until April-ish to undo any rulemaking promulgated by the Biden Administration in the last five-ish months of 2024. We say “ish” because exact dates are fluid. The takeaway is the House/Senate are going to be doing a lot of CRAs in March. Reminder, a successful CRA not only repeals a rulemaking, it means the agency is prohibited from submitting a future rulemaking that is equivalent to or similar in nature.

Committee Spotlight

House Appropriations: A lot going on if you’re an appropriations staffer. In addition to figuring out the FY 2025 spending mess, they’ll be holding hearings on FY 2026 with all the program directors and Administrators coming in to testify. Earmark requests are due, and they’re fighting with the Administration over who exactly controls the flow of spending around here.

House Budget: At this point, their role in the reconciliation process is mostly ceremonial.  They have to compile the legislation from all the committees their budget resolution instructed to…um…compile. However, as mentioned previously, the House-passed budget and the Senate-passed budget are not the same, and they need to be the same. The House can solve this situation fairly easily by “deeming” a resolution passed as part of a rule, which is what we expect them to do, but they’ll have to put it all together and introduce it first. Not clear how the Senate is going to get out of this jam.

House Transportation and Infrastructure: Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy made a public commitment to revamping the Air Traffic Controller hiring and training process to address the years-long shortage. The Committee will conduct hearings and oversight to support this effort. Additionally, the Committee will be putting together their Coast Guard Reauthorization bill, which they plan on moving through committee in April.

House Ways and Means: Ways and Means will be grinding away on a tax package to satisfy Republicans’ desire to make the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (aka “Trump tax cuts”) permanent. They’re already dealing from a short deck, however, because the votes aren’t there for the existing SALT cap. The question becomes: does lifting the SALT cap require adjustments elsewhere? What happens to no tax on tips? If it passes, can we get paid in cash? Ways and Means is going to be holding (at least) two public sessions on this, March 10th and 12th.

Senate Appropriations: Sen. Murray is still seeking a compromise on FY25 spending, with at least some alignment with Sen. Collins on that overall aim. But that effort got a whole lot tougher last week with the President publicly backing a full-year CR. Murray’s push for language that compels the Administration to actually spend money that is appropriated is looking like a significant uphill battle.

Senate Commerce: The committee, like T&I, has been very engaged on the ATC problem and reforms stemming from the DCA crash. Oversight of Boeing has also been a top priority of members and a frequent topic in nomination hearings, with CEO Kelly Ortberg set to testify in the committee on April 2. Beyond aviation, expect Sen. Cruz to be very focused on unlocking DoD spectrum in reconciliation, setting up an interesting intra-committee dynamic with former Commerce and current Armed Services Chair Sen. Wicker.

Get Smart – Dissecting the Joint OMB/OPM “DOGE” Memo

On February 26th, Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought and Office of Personnel Management (OPM) Acting Director Chuck Ezell sent a memo to the heads of all Executive departments and agencies titled “Guidance on Agency RIF and Reorganization Plans Requested by Implementing the President’s “Department of Government Efficiency” Workforce Optimization Initiative. You can find that memo here. If you have business before the federal government, we encourage you to read it in full, but here is a breakdown of what to look for when you do.

Broadly, What Is This Thing Asking?: If you don’t read it at all, the takeaway is that the President is asking each agency/department to reduce staff to the maximum extent possible and then reorganize each department to fit certain principles. These plans are called “Agency RIF and Reorganization Plans” or ARRPs.

Tell Me About The Due Dates, Why These Dates?: There are 3 key dates in the memo:

• March 13th: The first is March 13th, which is next week(!), when the “Phase 1” ARRP is due. March 13th is the day before March 14th, the day government funding runs out. Could it be that the due date would be designed to influence the appropriations process? If you haven’t already, learn to love the word “leverage.” Democrats who want to lay a government shutdown at GOP feet will get a preview of what a Trump Administration would try to do during a shutdown.
• April 14th: Phase 2 ARRPs are due. April 14th is the first Monday of the two-week Congressional recess for Easter. Meaning, the Administration will have two weeks of no camera-hungry Members in D.C. to fill the airwaves. It’s also the day before April 15th…the day all the procrastinators rush to turn in their tax returns. The Trump Administration will publicly deliver exactly how it wants to reduce the size of government the day before Americans cut a check to the government, and the Members will be far away from D.C. media? Not a coincidence.
• September 30th: It doesn’t get the bold and underlined treatment in the memo, but this is probably the most important date. Phase 2 ARRPs (the restructuring one) should be “planned for implementation” by this date. September 30th, of course, is the final day of the Federal fiscal year. I’m sure it’s happened before where the government funding doesn’t come down to the final day – and by “before,” we of course mean when Members travelled to D.C. in horse and buggy and Congress adjourned for the year in like May – but that won’t be the case. So here we have another leverage point designed to influence end-of-the-year spending decisions. We’ve had a lot of tense showdowns in September, but our bet is that this is going to be the most high-stakes negotiation we’ve seen in many decades. The Trump administration isn’t aiming for incremental change.
  • Fun Fact: Congress really didn’t really start staying in session into December until the 1970s, and even then, it wasn’t every year. In 1996, they adjourned October 4th!

Something That Should Worry Democrats In A Shutdown: The memo requires the ARRP to include something very specific, and it’s mentioned twice. Specifically, “All agency components and employees performing functions not mandated by statute or regulation who are not typically designated as essential during a lapse in appropriations (because the functions performed by such employees do not fall under an exception to the ADA) using the Agency Contingency Plans…”. This means that agencies will be broadcasting exactly who will get the axe in the event of a government shutdown.

Ok, Phase 1 Calls For A RIF, What’s A RIF?: A RIF, or Reduction in Force, is government speak for “layoff”. Is this distinction important? Yes! Civil service protections make it time-consuming and cumbersome to dismiss federal employees one at a time for performance or conduct issues. To get around these issues, the law (Title 5, Part 351, of the Code of Federal Regulations) allows for separating or demoting employees for “organizational” reasons…like a reorganization called for in Phase 2. This is why you’ve seen the Trump administration dismiss entire classes of employees (like probationary employees) as opposed to firing people one by one, only to bring back a certain number of specific persons. Agencies have a lot of discretion on the number and types of positions to be abolished. If you’re interested in the specifics, CRS has an overview here.

Ok, Phase 2 Calls For A Reorganization, What Am I Looking For?: This one is laid out in a pretty straightforward way, but each agency will interpret it differently. The reorganization plans will attempt to “consolidate areas of the agency organization chart that are duplicative; consolidate management layers where unnecessary layers exist; seek reductions in components and positions that are non-critical; implement technological solutions that automate routine tasks while enabling staff to focus on higher-value activities; close and/or consolidate regional field offices to the extent consistent with efficient service delivery; and maximally reduce the use of outside consultants and contractors.”

Can You Spot the Key Phrases Foreshadowing A Showdown With Congress?: There are a couple of places in the memo where the administration nods to the fact that at some point, Congress is going to have to weigh in here.

1. “Pursuant to the President’s direction, agencies should focus on the maximum elimination of functions that are not statutorily mandated.”
2. “Agencies should review their statutory authority and ensure that their plans and actions are consistent with such authority.”
3. “Any statutes that establish the agency, or subcomponents of the agency, as statutorily required entities. Agency leadership must confirm statutes have not been interpreted in a way that expands requirements beyond what the statute actually requires. Instead, statutes should be interpreted to cover only what functions they explicitly require.”
4. “The agency’s suggested plan for congressional engagement to gather input and agreement on major restructuring efforts and the movement of fundings between accounts, as applicable, including compliance with any congressional notification requirements.”

Are Any Employees Exempt?: Since every government action is inherently political, of course, there are exemptions. Anything in the law enforcement umbrella generally (including border/immigration), military personnel and the Commissioned Corps, Presidential nominees and appointments, the Executive Office of the President…and, of course, the U.S. Postal Service.

If You Wanted Me To Take Something Away From This Memo, What Is It?: If successful (“IF” in size 72 font), this memo and its associated Executive Orders could be the most significant government restructuring effort since the New Deal. Of course, the difference being, is that the Trump Administration is trying to go in the opposite direction. The scale of the attempted undertaking is truly incredible, which makes the number of ways this could all unravel difficult to quantify. But make no mistake, the Trump Administration is committed to trying.

*No, you cannot have $20 because we don’t believe you 😊.

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