Produced By:

Bret Manley (bret@elevatega.com) former Chief of Staff to Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL)

David Marten (david@elevatega.com) former Legislative Director for Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA)

Elevate Government Affairs (www.elevatega.com)

Balance of Power

Senate: 52 Republicans*, 45 Democrats, 2 Independents Caucusing with Democrats, 1 Vacancy

House: 219 Republicans*, 215 Democrats, 1 Vacancy

  • FL-01: Rep. Matt Gaetz has teased that he’ll take the oath of office on January 3rd since he was elected, but it’s likely he can’t. Essentially, there’s a “no takebacks” clause when you resign from Congress. Plus, the State of Florida has already scheduled a special election, which they cannot do without the seat being officially declared vacant. He could probably force a parliamentary ruling, in an effort to serve until the special election, but we doubt he will. All the “intrigue” is really about getting attention…which we’d never expect from Matt Gaetz. The special election to fill the seat will be April 1st. This is a safe Republican seat.
  • WV- Sen: Senator-elect Jim Justice (R-WV) is the current Governor of West Virginia. He has stated he will not step down early to assume his Senate seat but will instead wait until January 13th when his replacement is sworn in. Apparently, this is to avoid having four Governors in a 10-day span, which is a real thing you can read about here. West Virginia, wild and wonderful.
  • Nominees: Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Mike Waltz (R-FL) are expected to join the Trump Administration. Rep. Waltz will likely join immediately as his position does not require Senate confirmation and will create a vacancy in a safe Republican district. Rep. Stefanik is expected to resign when she is confirmed by the Senate which may or may not be in the month of January. She also occupies a safe GOP seat. Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) will create a vacancy when he is sworn in as Vice President on January 20 and it is likely Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) will be confirmed in January both because the job (Secretary of State) is very important and he’s a well-liked Senator and Senators are generally deferential to their colleagues. Both Ohio and Florida law allow their Governors (both Republicans) to appoint a successor so their departures will not create a vacancy of any significance.

Top Line Takeaways:

  • RIP Jimmy Carter; State Funeral to Be Held Next Week: The 39th President will lie in State in the Capitol Rotunda from January 7th to 9th. Upon arrival in D.C. on the 7th, Carter’s remains will be transferred to the Navy Memorial on Pennsylvania Ave. and then taken to the Capitol in a horse-drawn carriage. Members will pay their respects during a service at 3pm on Tuesday the 7th, after which the public will be invited to pay their respects until his remains are transferred to the National Cathedral for the National Funeral Service. Details aren’t public but every living President (and Vice President) attended the National Funeral for President George H.W. Bush in 2018, and we expect that to be the same this time around. Between the state funeral and inauguration, security in D.C. for the next three weeks is going to be very tight with fences already up around the Capitol campus today. The full funeral schedule can be found here.
  • Lost in the End of Year Spending Drama: We’d forgive you (but not our interns) if you missed that Congress set March 14th as the date we will maybe or maybe not shut the government down. Two things caught our eye in the final run up to the end of the 118th Congress. First, Trump endorsed a stopgap spending bill that included a debt ceiling hike and 38 House Republicans voted no. If you want to know who the problem children will be in the 119th Congress, study that list. But it begs another question: Did any of those members vote NO at least in part because they know Trump cannot run for re-election? It’s way too early to be a “lame duck” but every day that goes by remind yourself that politicians tend to do what’s in their self-interest. Some number of Republicans will eventually conclude breaking from Trump is in their self-interest which leads us to the second thing that caught our eye: Trump very publicly went after Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), a Freedom Caucus stalwart and longtime thorn in GOP leadership’s side. Rep. Roy still voted NO. Something to watch as fights over spending will dominate the first year of the 119th Congress.
  • Dealin’ on the Debt Ceilin’: President Trump, at what could charitably be called the last minute, demanded Congress extend (or maybe abolish outright) the debt ceiling in the end of year spending drama. Unsurprisingly, this did not happen. It’s likely the federal debt ceiling will be reached in the second half of January, but Treasury can extend the “x date” for a few months through the now-familiar “extraordinary measures.” Trump hates the debt ceiling, and he’s consistently said it’s arbitrary and shouldn’t exist. Expect him to continue to call for its abolition, which will be a fun little nugget to add to Republicans’ big reconciliation plans.
  • Sugar, Are We Going Down Down in an Earlier Round?: That one was for our millennial readers; we see you. After the implosion of Matt Gaetz’s nomination for Attorney General, speculation immediately turned to which other Trump nominees would go down. Our view is that there were three who had serious issues, albeit for very different reasons. After Gaetz: Tulsi Gabbard (DNI), Robert Kennedy Jr. (HHS), and Pete Hegseth (DOD) face the biggest headwinds. It looked for a while like Hegseth was out but it seems like he’s weathered the storm over his personal conduct and gotten a huge assist from West Point, which falsely claimed Hegseth had never even applied, let alone been accepted (to our left of center readers, this kind of thing is like the opposite of whatever kryptonite is to Superman. It has the power to make a Republican bulletproof to Republican voters). So that leaves Gabbard and RFK Jr. Our view is RFK Jr. is probably most in danger. Setting aside personal conduct issues (of which there are many), that totally bizarre dead bear story, the vaccine stuff, and many other things; until like 7 months ago he was very liberal on issues important to Republican voters. The one big caveat is that if another Trump nominee goes down, the veneer of Trump’s influence starts to fall apart. You get one, and that one was wasted on Matt Gaetz. Two would be a problem for Trump and his influence with Congressional Republicans.
  • Johnson Gets a Trump Bump: On Monday, December 30th President-elect Trump officially endorsed Speaker Mike Johnson to remain as Speaker. This should (emphasis on “should”) ensure he remains in his post on Friday as the newly minted 119th GOP class will likely not want to pick a high-profile fight with Trump, who finds himself with a net positive approval rating for the first time since coming down the golden escalators almost a decade ago.
    • Something To Remember Here: The House GOP don’t have the luxury of a 22-day side quest to find the next Speaker. Constitutionally, Congress has to certify the presidential election on January 6th. More on what happens if there’s no Speaker on the 6th in this month’s Get Smart section below.

Legislative Action in January

Very little will happen legislatively in January, despite all the enthusiasm over reconciliation. Primarily this is because the House and Senate must organize themselves and for bills to reach the floor they must go through committees. Additionally, with unified control of the House and Senate, Republicans are going to want to wait until President Trump is sworn in on January 20th before sending any legislation to the White House and the House is out of session that week.

  • Committees Organize: This is an official process by which each committee adopts its own set of rules. Most committee rules packages are functionally similar but there are key differences across committees with rights of the minority, budgets, shared staffers, amendments, etc. Committee Chairmen and Ranking Members will also select who will serve at the heads of the various subcommittees in the first week (usually) of January. This process typically takes a week or two. Speaker Johnson has informed House Chairmen to have their committees organized by Monday, January 6th, which is an ambitious goal with everything else going on.
    • In the Senate, even with a clear Republican majority it may still take a few weeks for committee budgets to be set (because the Senate works on consensus). In the 118th Congress, the Senate didn’t pass the resolution laying out committee budgets until February 15, 2023. Funding under that resolution runs through February 28, 2025.
  • Committee Assignments: Senate and House Republicans in December put out their committee assignments for new members and “A” committees like Appropriations, but Democrats in both chambers have lagged behind counterparts on the other side of the aisle. Senate Democrats just released their committee rosters this morning, and House Democrats will put out their list soon before the chamber ratifies the committee rosters.
  • House GOP Retreat: House Republicans will host their annual legislative retreat January 27th – 29th at Trump National Doral, in Miami. President Trump in his first term routinely attended House GOP gatherings and considering its being hosted at a Trump property that is itself only 90 minutes from Mar-A-Lago, we expect him to be there along with an entourage of other Trump world figures.
  • Senate Confirmation Hearings: Trump is eager to get his cabinet nominees appointed quickly, and incoming Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) says the Senate will work Fridays (gasp!) and maybe even weekends to get his team in place. We’ll see how the Senate’s institutionally slow pace matches up with those desires. Currently the only hearing that’s been scheduled is Pete Hegseth’s nomination for Secretary of Defense, on January 14th.
    • Trump War Room: Trump’s operation for getting his nominees in place is headquartered out of Mar-a-Lago. They’ve been VERY aggressive in interviewing folks for appointments in an effort to avoid the slow start the Trump Administration had in 2017. There are three factions of Trump world involved here: The Personnel Office (PPO) which makes sure potential nominees are sufficiently supportive of the President, the transition team which is the more traditional operation that embeds early in the various departments and makes sure they’re staffed, and what we’ll call “MAGAland” which is made up of prominent figures in Trump’s inner circle, his family, and the broader MAGA movement. We are pretty well sourced on who is interviewing so if you have questions feel free to ask!

Get Smart – Election of the Speaker

If you’re an OG Look Ahead reader, you caught this in the first ever Look Ahead in January 2023. We’ve updated it a bit for 2025. We do believe Johnson is most likely to be the Speaker to start Trump’s second term, if only because if it’s not going to be him, then who? But if you’re the betting type, you can get odds on Johnson vs. the field here. Ah, America.

When Does the Show Begin?: Constitutionally, the House is required to convene at noon on January 3rd, though that date can be changed if the House and Senate agree to a different date. Typically, the order of operations is as follows.

  • Call to Order/Prayer/Pledge of Allegiance
  • Quorum Call
  • Election of the Speaker
  • Speaker sworn in by the Dean of the House (Rep. Hal Rogers (R-KY)) and gives a speech
  • Oath of Office for Members
  • Adoption of the rules package
  • Miscellaneous administrative resolutions and policies on floor procedure adopted

Who Is In Charge If There is No Speaker?: Until the Speaker is elected, the previous Clerk of the House presides over the Chamber. That person is Kevin McCumber. If there is no such person, the duty falls to the Sergeant at Arms.

What’s the Purpose of the Quorum Call?: During a quorum call, members literally affirm that they are physically present in the House Chamber. A quorum in the House of Representatives constitutes a majority of Members physically present, so a Member-elect counts toward a quorum even if they don’t vote. The vote for Speaker cannot proceed under parliamentary rules until the quorum is officially established. The thing team Johnson will care about though is it tells you exactly how many votes will be required to becomes Speaker, assuming all Members vote for a candidate.

How Many Votes Does Johnson Need?: To be elected Speaker, a candidate needs an absolute majority of those present and voting for an individual by name (called “viva voce”), i.e. “present votes” don’t count in the total. This means that if all 435 Members-elect vote for a named candidate, 218 votes are required for election. It’s not a simple majority like you’d see on legislation. So even though the Democrats have 215 Members, if Johnson were to only secure 200 GOP votes, Jeffries would not become Speaker because 215 isn’t an absolute majority of the House.

Didn’t You Say Earlier There is a Vacancy?: We did! Due to the vacancy created by Matt Gaetz’s resignation, at most only 434 Members will be voting.

Why is This Important?: If 434 members are present and voting for a candidate Johnson can lose no more than ONE Republican, and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) has already said he’s a hard NO on Johnson. So that’s one. Republicans won 220 seats, but only 219 of them will be present to vote for Speaker. 219-2 = 217 which is exactly 50% of the House, and not a majority. Matt Gaetz strikes again!

How Could This Change?: If Members either do not cast a vote, or simply vote “present,” the threshold lowers for election to Speaker. If (assuming a full House), on a second or subsequent ballot, 10 members vote “present”, the magic number becomes (435-10)/2 = 213. This has happened six times, most recently Speaker Pelosi and Speaker Boehner secured their gavels with 216 votes in 2021 and 2015, respectively. Due to the extremely small majority, Republicans very much need everyone to show up on January 3rd and cast a vote for a named individual.

Has It Ever Happened Where a Speaker Won With a Plurality?: Yes, twice. Importantly this is not the same as a certain number of members declining to vote viva voce thus lowering the threshold for an absolute majority. This is when the person with the most votes regardless becomes Speaker. In order for this to happen the House has to adopt a resolution allowing it. In 1849 and 1856 the House voted to elect a Speaker by plurality after 59 and 129(!!!) failed ballots, respectively.

Could Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries Win the Gavel?: Technically, yes. Realistically, no. Republicans could always cross lines and vote for him (if this happens, congratulations you’ve woken up in an alternate universe) but also under a scenario where six Republicans vote “Present” or are absent (like the Gaetz vacancy), Hakeem Jeffries could be elected Speaker if all 215 Democrats stick together because 429/2 = 214.5. This will certainly not happen, but the fact that it could gives extraordinary leverage to individual members of the House, which is not how the institution was designed to function by the founders. Single handedly grinding everything to a halt is what a senator is for!

What we expect: The most likely outcome sees Johnson elected Speaker on the first or second ballot. We don’t see a scenario where Johnson could survive a 3rd (let alone 17th) try. However, as we noted up top Trump’s official endorsement of Johnson is good news for the Speaker. If it becomes obvious that Johnson isn’t going to get there, Trump will go in for the kill and bail on him. The question then becomes who else is there and didn’t we just go through this? Those two questions are why we see the most likely scenario as Johnson prevailing. If he goes down, we are in shotgun wedding territory. Constitutionally, Congress has to certify the Presidential election on the 6th and what happens if there is no Speaker on the 6th is not a question anyone wants to answer in this political environment. Don’t listen to anyone on social media (even if they’re a sitting senator) about how the Speaker doesn’t need to be an elected member of the House. While true, this isn’t The West Wing, the Speaker will be a House Republican and that person is likely to be Mike Johnson of Louisiana.

Ok What Happens on the 6th if There’s No Speaker?: Nobody knows! But they’d probably figure it out. The good news is that it’s a joint session and the presiding officer is the President of the Senate. That person of course is Vice President Kamala Harris and thus is not in doubt. The bad news is it’s mostly a ceremonial role and both chambers’ presiding officers appoint two tellers. Without a Speaker, the presiding officer is the Acting Clerk of the House. Ok that’s good right? Wrong. Without a Speaker, Members-elect of the House won’t be sworn in and therefore cannot officially certify the results. HOWEVER…you were waiting for the “however”…the Constitution also provides that the rules of the House are to be determined by the House, so they could do a lot of different things as long as a majority of them agreed on it. This could include allowing the Acting Clerk to swear Members in or agreeing on a temporary Speaker so that Members may be sworn in and certify the vote. Somewhere Patrick McHenry is telling people to lose his phone number. We’d bet on the temporary Speaker path to avoid any legal challenges over the swearing in of Members by an Acting Clerk. Your guess as good as ours as who they would decide on, though we have it on good authority that Virginia Foxx (R-NC) is ready.

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